再保公司文章評論與實務打滾感想

細看了姚博分享的風險管理觀念文章

 

 

感想心得如下：

1.Accountability的觀念

不要拿黑天鵝、壞運與意外來當成失敗與出錯的藉口理由

"My argument is that the supposed unpredictability of events all too often serves as an excuse for the lack of risk management. In this way, human error becomes force majeure, recklessness becomes bad luck, and irresponsibility becomes fate. "

 

風險是成就事業的一部分，不能分割也無法切割...

 

 

 

 

 

2.老王賣瓜

作者是再保公司的CEO，文章刊登在保險雜誌上

內容當然是強調風險管理的重要性與必要性，訴說一些風險管理的應然理想，相對的對於如何做的實然與困境難處則點到為止(好期待黑天鵝作者會如何吐槽這位CEO)

 

 

3.以子之矛攻子之盾

關於黑天鵝的風險管理，作者的建議有以下幾點，然而這些敘述本身就是自相矛盾的，以下列舉兩小段：

What's needed is an honest and realistic assessment of probability and the impact of possible but also quite rare events. In particular, events with potentially major impacts should not be ignored in the risk analysis simply because their probability of occurrence is essentially difficult to determine, or is relatively low. Difficulties with estimating the probability of occurrence, the impact of events and options for action should not be an excuse for not dealing with a risk.

 

For some risks, little or no information is available in the form of data. This is the case, for instance, with risks from future technologies and from growing global interconnection. Here, tried-and-tested quantitative methods can be used only to a limited extent. In evaluating such uncertainties, we must rely primarily on the assessment of experts and to some extent also on "gut feeling". Risk management based on gut feeling or intuition is a fundamental human skill and should therefore be an integral part of professional risk management. Common sense is capable of amazing feats when it comes to risk assessment. It also makes a lot of sense to take account of psychological insights into judgment and decision-making when carrying out risk analysis on risks that are hard to quantify. This includes better understanding of human intuition and its possible distortion when assessing risks, for example due to the presence of a specific topic in the media. Besides effects on individual assessment, we must also take account of group phenomena, as groups tend towards more extreme judgments than individuals, for example. In the light of these findings, assessment and decision-making processes can be designed in such a way as to reduce distortions and ensure the greatest possible transparency.

 

 

黑天鵝一詞大家都(人云亦云地)引用，也是從事與談論風險管理必看的一本書(背後有著非常深的哲理，然而讀完與讀懂的人真的很少…）

鄙人筆記如下

http://eshmanager.blogspot.tw/2015/04/blog-post_18.html#more

 

 

 

鄙人在工廠打滾與主事者打交道的心得領悟

 

1.風險的判斷，不可能客觀、透明與公正

 

受限於人的心智注意力與工具方法的侷限，人與組織就是不可能正確地評估風險的嚴重度與發生機率
(進一步說明參見快思慢想一書，鄙人筆記)

(在此感謝工業區兩光的友廠，每年都會推派幾家火燒出事，用真實的情境刺激老闆的感官，提升老闆對於風險管理的注意力 the availability of risk consciousness，而不要只對賺錢&營收獲利保有consciousness & awareness)

 

 

 

2.風險如同商機，都是可遇不可求

 

有做不保證不會出事，沒做也不見得一定會出事。

因此對於風險管理而言，最大的問題不是沒做會出事掛掉；而是很多人/更多時候，大家都沒這麼做(謹慎)，其實還好/也沒聽說會怎麼樣(直到意外發生與見到黃河和棺財)

3.風險管理其實是取捨與拿捏時機的一門政治藝術而非統計或模擬的科學技術

 

老闆與經理人常說：

資源有限/欲望無窮/錢要花在刀口上。

同樣一筆錢花在地震或火災防護上，要等到那地震天災或火災意外發生，才會看到效益；還不如先挪用這筆錢去投資開發新產品；而新產品研發產生的效益能見度，遠高於投資預防意外所需的redundancy & backup...

(BTW, 鄙人還是讓老闆花了錢去投資預防相關意外所需的redundancy & backup；原因不是敝人英明或擁有三寸不爛之舌，而是必須感謝某去年剛拿到國家工安獎的大公司友廠火災出事帶給老闆的震撼與啟示=>

有用心做不見得不會出事，遑論不用心/不重視....)