交通部統計查詢網
http://stat.motc.gov.tw/mocdb/stmain.jsp?sys=100
Idea 構想:
看看交通事故率的高低,是否和以下因素有關 與 猜想背後的因果關係
1. 新手駕駛=>看駕照數的增減
2. 景氣好壞 =>失業率/進出口金額
3. 空氣品質 =>看環保署空氣汙染指標
4. 天候氣溫 =>氣溫日照天數
5. 官方稽查 =>稽查開罰件數
Disclaimer: 僅為統計Kuso應用
1. 新手駕駛=>看駕照數的增減
2. 景氣好壞 =>失業率/進出口金額
3. 空氣品質 =>看環保署空氣汙染指標
4. 天候氣溫 =>氣溫日照天數
5. 官方稽查 =>稽查開罰件數
Disclaimer: 僅為統計Kuso應用
Part
1 Cross-Sectional Separated Regression
假說1
新手駕駛(大小客車駕照)
Dependent Variable: DYA1
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Method: Least Squares
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Sample (adjusted): 2001M02 2016M04
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Included observations: 183 after
adjustments
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Variable
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Coefficient
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Std. Error
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t-Statistic
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Prob.
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DLA
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4.881779
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6.423653
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0.759969
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0.4483
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DLB
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-1.922808
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6.677659
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-0.287946
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0.7737
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R-squared
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-0.007175
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Mean
dependent var
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1.204678
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Adjusted R-squared
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-0.012740
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S.D.
dependent var
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9.032821
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S.E. of regression
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9.090177
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Akaike
info criterion
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7.263135
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Sum squared resid
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14956.27
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Schwarz
criterion
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7.298211
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Log likelihood
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-662.5768
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Hannan-Quinn
criter.
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7.277353
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Durbin-Watson stat
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2.987217
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呵,解釋力很糟
假說2
景氣好壞
解釋力35%
解釋力35%
Dependent Variable: DYA1
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Method: Least Squares
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Sample (adjusted): 2001M02 2016M04
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Included observations: 183 after
adjustments
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Variable
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Coefficient
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Std. Error
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t-Statistic
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Prob.
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E1
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0.224664
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0.120185
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1.869316
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0.0632
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DE2
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0.002045
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0.000205
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10.00076
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0.0000
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DE3
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-0.858224
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0.601087
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-1.427787
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0.1551
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R-squared
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0.358201
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Mean
dependent var
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1.204678
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Adjusted R-squared
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0.351070
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S.D.
dependent var
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9.032821
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S.E. of regression
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7.276499
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Akaike
info criterion
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6.823434
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Sum squared resid
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9530.539
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Schwarz
criterion
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6.876049
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Log likelihood
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-621.3442
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Hannan-Quinn
criter.
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6.844762
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Durbin-Watson stat
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2.719075
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對交通事故率與外銷出口的金額的關聯性非常顯著(景氣好,事故率高)
假說3
空氣品質(霧霾)
解釋力5%
解釋力5%
Dependent Variable: DYA1
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Method: Least Squares
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Sample (adjusted): 2001M02 2016M04
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Included observations: 181 after
adjustments
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Variable
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Coefficient
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Std. Error
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t-Statistic
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Prob.
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DAQ1
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-0.369524
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0.354330
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-1.042880
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0.2984
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DAQ2
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-0.115151
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0.083183
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-1.384303
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0.1680
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DAQ3
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0.353249
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0.113126
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3.122610
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0.0021
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R-squared
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0.056868
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Mean
dependent var
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1.378677
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Adjusted R-squared
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0.046271
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S.D.
dependent var
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8.905764
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S.E. of regression
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8.697285
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Akaike
info criterion
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7.180334
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Sum squared resid
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13464.41
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Schwarz
criterion
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7.233348
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Log likelihood
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-646.8203
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Hannan-Quinn
criter.
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7.201827
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Durbin-Watson stat
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2.813369
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空氣品質不好、能見度低,所以事故率會高?
亦或
空氣品質好,大家開快車,所以事故率高?!
空氣品質好,大家開快車,所以事故率高?!
假說4
天候氣溫
解釋力10%
解釋力10%
Dependent Variable: DYA1
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Method: Least Squares
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Sample (adjusted): 2001M02 2016M04
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Included observations: 183 after
adjustments
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Variable
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Coefficient
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Std. Error
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t-Statistic
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Prob.
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DW1
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0.062103
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0.019511
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3.182986
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0.0017
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DW2
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-0.035565
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0.046516
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-0.764575
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0.4455
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DW3
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0.162819
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0.147772
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1.101827
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0.2720
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DW4
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0.094797
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0.188125
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0.503903
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0.6149
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R-squared
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0.101875
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Mean
dependent var
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1.204678
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Adjusted R-squared
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0.086823
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S.D.
dependent var
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9.032821
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S.E. of regression
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8.631791
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Akaike
info criterion
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7.170397
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Sum squared resid
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13336.90
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Schwarz
criterion
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7.240549
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Log likelihood
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-652.0913
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Hannan-Quinn
criter.
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7.198833
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Durbin-Watson stat
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2.825518
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日照天數與事故率顯著相關(日照天數多,大家出遊多,所以事故率高?)
假說5
官方執法稽查
解釋力30%
解釋力30%
Dependent Variable: DYA1
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Method: Least Squares
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Sample (adjusted): 2001M02 2016M04
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Included observations: 183 after
adjustments
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Variable
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Coefficient
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Std. Error
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t-Statistic
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Prob.
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DP1
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0.037243
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0.006352
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5.863581
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0.0000
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DP2
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0.002186
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0.004392
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0.497629
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0.6193
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R-squared
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0.309954
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Mean
dependent var
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1.204678
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Adjusted R-squared
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0.306141
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S.D.
dependent var
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9.032821
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S.E. of regression
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7.524176
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Akaike
info criterion
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6.884988
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Sum squared resid
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10246.99
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Schwarz
criterion
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6.920065
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Log likelihood
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-627.9764
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Hannan-Quinn
criter.
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6.899207
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Durbin-Watson stat
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2.377284
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關係顯著,但兩者是正相關,而非負相關
Part
2 Cross-Sectional Pooled Regression
以上這些因素都放在一起回歸的時候
哪個因素會顯著、relevant?
Dependent Variable: DYA1
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Method: Least Squares
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Sample (adjusted): 2001M02 2016M04
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Included observations: 183 after
adjustments
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Variable
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Coefficient
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Std. Error
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t-Statistic
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Prob.
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C
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1.338444
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0.695792
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1.923625
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0.0560
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DLA
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-1.091594
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2.428728
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-0.449451
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0.6537
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DE2
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0.001414
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0.000218
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6.492952
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0.0000
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DAQ3
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0.031253
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0.041543
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0.752312
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0.4529
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DW1
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0.038969
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0.010532
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3.700053
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0.0003
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DP1
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0.020305
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0.004571
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4.441803
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0.0000
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R-squared
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0.491222
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Mean
dependent var
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1.204678
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Adjusted R-squared
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0.476850
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S.D.
dependent var
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9.032821
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S.E. of regression
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6.533360
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Akaike
info criterion
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6.623957
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Sum squared resid
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7555.208
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Schwarz
criterion
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6.729186
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Log likelihood
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-600.0921
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Hannan-Quinn
criter.
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6.666612
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F-statistic
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34.17849
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Durbin-Watson
stat
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2.317044
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Prob(F-statistic)
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0.000000
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新手駕駛、空氣品質不顯著
景氣、天候與官方稽查顯著正相關
Part3
Longitudinal Regression
確認不同因素的先後關係以判斷因果關係的解釋
e.g.
景氣好=>車輛數增加=>空物污染增加=>造成車禍事故率高?
車禍事故率高=>官方稽核增加 亦或 官方稽核增加=>車禍事故率低
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
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Date: 07/14/16 Time: 14:29
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Sample: 2001M01 2016M04
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Lags: 1
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Null Hypothesis:
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Obs
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F-Statistic
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Prob.
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DYA1 does not Granger Cause DP1
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182
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14.0995
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0.0002
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DP1 does not Granger Cause DYA1
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4.86715
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0.0286
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Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
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Date: 07/14/16 Time: 14:30
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Sample: 2001M01 2016M04
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Lags: 7
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Null Hypothesis:
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Obs
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F-Statistic
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Prob.
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DYA1 does not Granger Cause DP1
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176
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8.10248
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2.E-08
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DP1 does not Granger Cause DYA1
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2.51959
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0.0174
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是因為上個月事故多,官方才會加強稽查
不是官方稽查有助於減少事故發生!
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