教學相長與教學觀摩
環境政策與規劃
教這門課的老師
https://dusp.mit.edu/faculty/lawrence-susskind
Scenario
1:
Federal Environmental
Policy-Making
Federal environmental policy-making in the
context of the scientific and political considerations
What are the most important things to
consider - in political and technical terms - and what are your suggestions
regarding how and why the Senator might rate or rank each factor? 身為助理，如何協助參議員評估相關法案，評估的準則與框架是?
重點摘錄：
評估法案的三大準則
1.科學研究證據
研究的可信度(peer review)？研究機構的利益迴避?
2.政策與經濟效益
該法案的主要的訴求，成本效益評估？
3.政治選票考量
民選代表有勝選連任的壓力，該提案會不會過？對立觀點與民意？
Scenario
3
Policy Evaluation
You are a senior policy analyst on the
staff of the Secretary of the Interior's office. You have been asked to review
a series of studies produced by the conservative Heritage Society that argue
quite strenuously that command-and-control policies that were used to protect
air quality, water quality, and endangered species for several decades are no
longer needed.
Please list the steps you would take to
ensure the credibility of the study in the eyes of the scientific community,
the environmental advocacy community, the business community, and Congress.
重點摘錄
其實就是把利害關係找進來參與
1.找公正的研究機關進行scientific measurements and benchmarks (欸，可惜科學不是萬能，常常緩不濟急)
2.了解民意風向、在地社區與環保激進團體(辦理相關的公聽研討會議)
3.環保主管機關對商業團體的法規聽證研討
4.法律領域與政治人物的參與(環境正義的認定)
Scenario
4
Comparative Policy
Analysis
比較美國、日本、歐洲與澳洲關於農地保育與確保糧食政策的差異
They will fund you to make separate
two-week trips to each of those three parts of the world. You can bring along
one of your senior staff members. Obviously, you can collect any information
you need before you go.
1.Who do you want to see in each country
and what do you want to try to find out?
2.What problems do you anticipate with
regard to making sense of what you are told and what you observe?
3.What problems do you anticipate with
regard to generalizing across your findings from the other regions of the
world? Your board expects you to enumerate the opportunities for and the
obstacles to cross-contextual learning.
4.To what extent do you think that your
findings will reveal ideas and strategies that will be helpful in the
5.How ought you to deal with the skeptics
on your board who feel that the laws, customs, regulations, ecosystems, and
political systems in each country are too different for anything useful to come
of a comparative analysis?
3P place, policies, and people.
Place土地利用/國土規劃
最好的土地被拿去做什麼用途? 開發與保育之間如何取捨? 不同區段的開發限制
Policy 影響土地開發與利用的政策與法規
土地開發的經濟效益與環境衝擊如何評估？
People 當地居民(對於土地)的文化傳統
祖先神靈流傳下來的交代
對於政策比較而言，還需關注與反思：為什麼bench mark的是這些國家？
風土民情大不相同，比較的意義與目的是？
Hint
1.與其內部辯論(公婆各有理)，不如看看別人的作法(獲得新的idea)
2.別人的做法提供一個社會因果實驗，有助於降低我們的學習曲線+論證哪些想法可能有問題
3.對於政策導入後的成效成敗提供一個驗證與比較的基準
Scenario
5
The Precautionary
Principle
Cass Sunstein and precautionary principle
https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/law_and_economics/87/
Precautionary Principle：
後來的與新出現必須證明自己不會對既有系統造成危害，即便(經過一段時間)已經證明不會造成立即與顯著危害，還是必須有相關監管監控
這個原則的問題在於：The principle is literally paralyzing— forbidding inaction,
stringent regulation, and everything in between. (=也阻礙了各種創新與可能)
當某樣東西的成本與效益都不明確時，你該如何取捨？
Utilitarian ethics is no longer important
because what's important is how you value the mistakes that you could make. A
type I error comes when you've failed to regulate something, and it later comes
out to be worse than you thought or at the tails of the distribution of what
you're thinking. A type II error is where you regulate, and
things turn out to be not as bad as you
thought and then impose a higher cost upon.
But there's a type III error which is
you're working on the wrong problem. . What happens is you end up coming face
to face with a substitute, with an alternative technology, with alternative
ways to meet the public needs.
三種形式的錯誤
(微觀)型一錯誤：（對於某樣新藥品）沒有加以規範與預防，結果事情出錯(產生副作用)
(微觀)型二錯誤：過度謹慎，結果錯失機會(對於某樣新藥品要求各項安全性測試，導致錯失救人機會)
(宏觀)型三錯誤：你糾結這一藥品的型一與型二錯誤的兩難取捨上，忽略有其他可行替代發案或情境發展
所有的成本效益分析都應該包含相關的替代方案與相對應的利害關係人
1.
成本：多少？承擔的是誰？不確定性(無法評估效益大小，或者是用$計價的那些)？
2.
效益：多少？承擔的是誰？不確定性？
以上成本效益間的取捨通常很難量化、得到絕對答案，你只能宣稱引用precautionary principle透過制定法規來給個交代，而法規就是一種成本與誘因，改變了利害關係者行為
重點在於open your mind keep your option open!
Look for alternatives----that both reduce
the risk and create a variety of alternatives.
Scenario
6
Philosophical
underpinnings of sustainable development.
追求健康(可持續)的經濟發展：
資源消耗與廢棄物產出速率<資源再生與廢棄物回收
而非經濟成長（economic growth is simply a measure of total resource throughput. It
says nothing about happiness, health, safety, or sense of community within a
region.
經濟成長用偏誤的GDP進行衡量
https://eshmanager.blogspot.com/2019/12/blog-post.html#more
經濟成長（economic growth）≠經濟發展（economic development）
Development is the quality of improvement
of resource efficiency within a region. To invest in projects that promote
development in poor countries is to invest in projects that allow people to
produce more with the resources they already have.
背後的哲學與倫理不過是
1.追求人類福祉長期的最大化而非短期的經濟成長
2.這一代保育資源與對下一代負責
3.消滅貧窮、提高平均生活水平而創造首富與暴發戶
可惜的是：
1.in the long run, we all die.(好漢不吃眼前虧、政治寧短多長空)
2.抽象的福祉不容易衡量，具體的數字比較有感
3.人不知道自己想要的，所以寧願人比人(氣死自己)
Scenario
7
Local Knowledge vs.
Expert Knowledge
Assume you work for the Navajo
Environmental Agency. You want to be sure that "local knowledge"
about the adverse effects of uranium mining in Navajo Nation is given serious
consideration when and if the
如何讓原鄉的人參與環境開發公共政策(知悉相關的風險)
1. develop a task force that will be in
charge of mobilizing community members and spearheading an outreach program to
let our community know about the efforts to
reduce local knowledge about the health
impacts of the uranium mining.
2. reach out to the scientific community
for local partners
3. facilitate the conversation around the
type of data we should collect with members of the scientific community and our
own community.
4. train researchers within our community
to conduct face-to-face interviews in English and Navajo.
5. pair community researchers with members
of the scientific community to analyze and interpret findings in a language
that can be understood within the scientific community but also within our own
community.
6. Finally, the task force should pair with
members of the scientific community to release findings to local media, environmental
organizations, and to the broader public. Our strategy then is to ensure that
our community is knowledgeable about the impacts of uranium mining so that we
can understand the full impact of opening our
lands up again and to be able to translate
what we have suffered in our own language and technical language necessary to
make people sit up and take notice of us.
Scenario
8
Environmental Impact
Assessment
Scenario
9
Cost-Benefit Analysis
The governor has asked you to outline a
comprehensive cost-benefit analysis that can be done to help answer all these
questions. How should benefits and costs in this case be defined? What, in your
view, are the most important costs and benefits to focus on in the study? What
should be the time frame and the geographic scope of the study? How should the
governor handle the question of the inequitable distribution of benefits and
costs associated with re-use of the site?
成本效益分析的問題
1. the willingness to pay or willingness to
accept.是
2.成本效益分析多半根本不夠完整- 針對可量化的經濟效益，至於難以量化的(成本與效益)那就….
3.成本效益分析當中常會提到創造OO就業機會，然而就業機會的增減，其實取決於總體經濟景氣…再者就業率的增減通常是透過電腦計算的均衡方程式，一來大家看不見均衡方程式背後的假設，二來如果就業市場達均衡，其實無法提高就業率(If labor markets clear, you don't create net jobs by putting people
to work.)，三來每個執政者都希望提高就業率，而執政者的決策卻又不單只是依據就業率的提高與創造的就業人口數(還有其他考量)
4.成本效益分析本身就是訊號傳遞與(政績)宣導，「該政策具備效益」與「民眾是否知道與認可」，其實是
5.誰付出成本與誰獲得利益也是
6.潛伏期與發病率的問題：對於長期暴露所造成的健康風險，該如何評價?(沒有辦法做科學實驗，沒有人說得準，通常也要20-30年才看得出端倪..)，對你而言只有遇到發病和沒有遇到
7.折現率的問題，對於日後的成本與效益，透過設定折現率轉換成為淨現值(可以加以比較成本vs效益)，這個未來與現在的匯率(=折現率)該如何設定？折現率反應的是一種對於風險的偏好與價值取捨、貨幣的通膨貶值、利率機會成本與你日後對於金錢價值的偏好(You don't know what the future wants. You don't know what the
future's willingness to pay will be.)
8. 當折現率vs 潛伏期與發病率： What if 給你每個月5000元+保障優先僱用在地居民，但污染工廠設在你家附近，30年後，附近居民罹癌的機率”可能”高於平均值30-60% ?
9.基於以上幾點，成本效益分析只是一堆看似合理的假設，反映出執行這個分析的人眼中，何謂”合理”；而依據這個成本效益分析所進行的決策，也塑造出下一代的價值基準：寧保育而不追求$的，下一代自然會視保育為優先價值；追求$與經濟利益的，下一代會視經濟成長為優先價值決擇(there's a circularity in that what we do today will actually create
the future's preferences)。
10.成本效益分析就是塑造與改變未來(成本效益分析呈現的就是一種價值偏好，而非價值中立!)So there is no way actually to do something from a hypothesis
about what the future prefers, because not only do they not exist yet, but we
will create them.
讓人腦洞大開的大神
http://frankackerman.com/biography/
Scenario
10
Societal Risk Assessment
The city of
How would you make your case for a new risk
assessment to the relevant state and regional agencies who have formal
oversight responsibility?
重點摘錄
風險評估的問題
1.the risk assessment assumes that
everything possible to manage these risks is being done. It doesn't leave any
possibility for human error or negligence, or any mistakes happening. However,
there's very little evaluation to ensure that all of these safety
measures are being taken 100% of the time.
2. There's site visits by the regulatory
agency only several times a year, and these are
announced ahead of time. So they don't
accurately reflect whether the safety measures are being taken day in and day
out.
風險評估步驟
1.與利害關係者協商出可接受的風險情境
2.視風險的發生為必然，人會犯錯/設備會故障(風險值不會如理論值那麼小assume that some degree of human error will occur and that safety
measures will not be followed all the time- 透過該產業過去的歷史數據作為估算失誤率/失效率的基礎)
3.主管機關依據以上風險評估結果，來判定該場只能否啟用、繼續營運或關閉
4 .廠商提交安全管理計畫(PSM)，讓官員的督導有所依據
Scenario
11
Ecosystem Services
Analysis
Scenario
12
Public Participation
Techniques and Strategies
Scenario
13
Scenario 14
Environmental
Dispute Resolution
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